Weather Forecast: How Is It Made?

Everyone wants to know the right weather forecast. For it, you should visit https://meteo.uk. However, what calculations are made by computers and which ones are made by people, why do errors occur, and what should we know about forecasts?

The secret of the weather forecast

The current weather is measured using special instruments at weather stations and sites located in all regions of each country. To collect and transmit meteorological information, a universal meteorological cipher is used:

• Each natural phenomenon, whether it be clouds or rain, is assigned a code.
• A set of such codes is sent to world meteorological centers.
• There, they are loaded into a computer program that draws weather maps for different levels of the atmosphere.

Cyclones and anticyclones are clearly distinguished on the maps. However, the computer is not able to determine how this may affect the weather in the region, so weather forecasters are engaged in the analysis of maps.

What forecasts should be trusted?

The most accurate forecast can be made 2-3 days ahead and seen on https://meteo.uk/widget. Sometimes, in stable situations, the forecast is justified even for 5-10 days. However, predicting the weather for more than two weeks is almost impossible.

What about the average temperature and humidity for the month? The accuracy of the forecast depends on the state of the atmosphere. A change in even the smallest parameter in it leads to a restructuring of the entire atmospheric process.

Satellite observations for increased forecast accuracy

In addition to the data meteorologists collect from observation stations, they also utilize satellite information. This increases the volume of data available for analysis and makes forecasts more detailed and accurate. Long-term forecasts, even for two weeks or a month ahead, have become possible thanks to this data. It also allows for rough assumptions about the upcoming season.

How much time is needed to create a daily weather forecast?

It can be very disappointing when you expect sunny weather but get rain instead. In such moments, you might feel like meteorologists aren’t doing anything. However, it’s actually quite a laborious job. To create a detailed and accurate forecast for one day in a specific location, a meteorologist can spend up to several hours!

Of course, computational systems help significantly speed up this process. Nevertheless, sometimes, for agricultural work or other important needs, an even more precise and detailed forecast may be required, which could take a meteorologist several hours to create.

Why do forecasters make mistakes?

In general, many people like to notice errors in forecasts. Few people take into account the fact that specialists work with the most unstable thing on the Earth – the atmosphere, and the instruments that make measurements are not yet perfect.

However, when some natural disasters happen, there are even suggestions to punish weather forecasters for inaccurate forecasts. Especially, if no notification messages were sent to citizens and governments, and they were not able to save the situation beforehand. Still, there are some forecasts that fall under the emergency criteria, and so forecasters report such circumstances.

The main thing is that the forecast can be wrong at any moment. Rains may intensify under the influence of the metropolis. Or, for example, a forecast is made for the day early in the morning, but there are times when the sun did not appear and did not warm the air. It is not always possible to consider these factors. Therefore, we need to pay attention to forecasts but stay alert to their changes.

Why weather forecasts can be different on websites?

Have you ever noticed that weather forecasts can be more accurate on certain websites than others? The difference is due to the fact that website owners obtain information from various sources. Some platforms publish data from official meteorological services, while others rely solely on satellite data, and some companies conduct their own research. Different models and technologies may also be applied. So, the published results can vary.